WASHINGTON -- A senior US State Department official has flatly rejected suggestions that Washington and Moscow are informally continuing to observe the limits of the now-expired, nuclear-weapon-limiting New START treaty, saying there is no “gentlemen’s agreement” in place.
“I know of no such agreement,” Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Yeaw said on February 17 at the Hudson Institute when asked whether the two sides were quietly adhering to New START’s caps despite the treaty’s expiration.
Axios reported on February 5 that, according to three sources familiar with the talks, the US and Russia are moving closer on a deal to "continue to observe the expiring New START arms control treaty."
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) was signed in 2010 by the United States and Russia and limited the two countries to 1,550 deployed warheads each. The treaty expired on February 5.
Yeaw's comments underscore a harder US line on arms control under President Donald Trump, whose administration has allowed New START to lapse while pursuing what officials describe as a broader, trilateral framework that would also include China.
Treaty Limits No Longer Binding
New START capped deployed US and Russian strategic nuclear warheads but did not cover nonstrategic, or “theater,” nuclear weapons and imposed no limits on China.
Yeaw described those omissions as fundamental flaws.
“Only two blocks out of six were captured by treaty,” he said, outlining a matrix of US, Russian, and Chinese strategic and theater nuclear forces. With China unconstrained and Russia modernizing its nonstrategic arsenal, he argued, the treaty framework had become outdated.
Russia had already stepped back from full implementation before expiration, Yeaw said, adding that Washington is now free to adjust its posture as needed.
“We are no longer bound by New START treaty limits,” he said, noting that any future force decisions rest with the president and the Pentagon.
China Test Allegations Add Pressure
Yeaw’s remarks came as he elaborated on US claims that China has conducted a yield-producing nuclear test.
The US is aware that China carried out a supercritical nuclear detonation on June 22, 2020, near its Lop Nur test site, he said, citing seismic data indicating a magnitude 2.75 event.
“I’m data-driven. I’m a scientist,” Yeaw said. “There is very little possibility that it is anything but an explosion.”
He accused Beijing of using “decoupling” techniques to reduce the detectability of such tests and said China has prepared tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons.
China has denied violating its testing moratorium.
President Trump has said the United States would return to nuclear testing on an “equal basis” if competitors continue to conduct yield-producing explosions. Yeaw stressed that does not mean a return to Cold War-era megaton atmospheric tests, but it does mean Washington will not adhere to a strict zero-yield posture if others do not.
“If adversaries conduct nuclear tests but the US does not, America is putting itself at an intolerable disadvantage,” he said.
Yeaw framed the administration’s approach as “America First arms control,” but added that it “cannot and does not mean America-only arms control.”
The administration will seek further strategic stability agreements on a trilateral basis, involving both Russia and China, he said.
With the next Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review conference approaching, Yeaw signaled that Washington will press Beijing to join negotiations rather than rely on bilateral US-Russia arrangements.
For now, however, he made clear that there is no informal understanding keeping New START alive.
“There is no such agreement,” Yeaw said.
