Middle East
- By Riin Aljas and
- Carl Schreck
Celebrations, Looting, And Statue Surfing: Scenes From Syria After Assad's Fall
The collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime sparked nationwide celebrations, as scenes of jubilation and chaos unfolded across the country.
In the early hours of December 8, videos emerged on social media showing groups of people gathering on Umayyad Square in Damascus, a key landmark in the capital. Thousands more joined them throughout the day, with some participants climbing atop a tank.
Social media footage verified by RFE/RL showed people exiting the central bank building in Damascus carrying bags and boxes.
Looting was reported in the capital and in other cities across the country, according to multiple eyewitness accounts.
At the gates of the presidential palace in Damascus, video footage captured jubilant men cheering and firing weapons into the air.
People were seen entering the palace freely throughout the day after Assad fled the country. Russian state media reported later on December 8 that he and his family had arrived in Moscow and been granted asylum.
Video footage from inside the palace showed crowds milling around, as well as people carrying out furniture and valuables, leaving trashed rooms behind them.
Verified video footage obtained by RFE/RL also showed the building of the Syrian Interior Ministry's immigration and passport department ablaze in Damascus.
Statues of Assad's late father, Hafez al-Assad, who created the authoritarian system his son inherited, were dismantled nationwide after a lightning-fast rebel offensive.
On Arwad Island, off the coast of Tartus and around 10 kilometers from a Russian naval base, jubilant crowds toppled a statue of the elder Assad, who died in 2000, and climbed onto the monument in celebration.
In Latakia, a coastal town that was a stronghold of the Assad family, another statue of Hafez al-Assad was torn down and dragged through the streets behind a truck as revelers rode atop it.
Images also showed the aftermath of the storming of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, which appeared to have been abandoned earlier on December 8. Iranian media reported that diplomats had already evacuated the premises.
More News
- By Ray Furlong
Sleeping On A Subway Platform To Evade Iranian Missiles In Tel Aviv
TEL AVIV -- For Aviad Apirion, a 40-year-old teacher in a special needs school, the war with Iran has meant sleeping every night at an underground railway station to avoid the danger of incoming Iranian ballistic missiles.
And he’s got plenty of company. The platform of the gleaming new station in a Tel Aviv suburb is crammed with mattresses -- and people of all nations.
“It's like a fairground for the kids here. For me, it's quite tricky but I prefer my children to be in a safe place, so I am with them here. I have a safe room at home, but I don't trust it since these are ballistic missiles. I don't feel safe,” Apirion told RFE/RL.
Apirion has slept here with his two children, aged 7 and 9, since the first night of the war. As we speak, we’re surrounded by other kids, who bombard our reporting team with questions.
“They all became friends with each other here,” said Apirion, with a chuckle that belied the anxiety of wartime circumstances. The children amuse themselves by playing on the elevators, running freely around the station, or on their phones.
“You also have here people of many faiths. Jews, Christians, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists,” Apirion said.
Missile Alerts On Phones
A few steps down the platform, a group of Indian men are sat around a chess board. Some of them work in Israel’s large care sector, others in construction. Sooriya Narayana Reddy told RFE/RL he arrived in this country a month ago and hopes to receive political asylum, without elaborating.
“Sleeping here, there are big spaces [for us]. We are near to our room, actually. That’s why we came here,” he said, his words interrupted by the blaring of another incoming missile alert on our phone apps.
Usually, this would be a sign to stop what we’re doing and head for a shelter. But we’re already in one, so the conversation continues. The big advantage to sleeping down here, Narayana Reddy said, is uninterrupted sleep.
“We are sleeping peacefully. We turn off our phones overnight,” he said.
Under Israeli law, all modern residential buildings must come with a purpose-built shelter. But in Tel Aviv, there are many old buildings. Public shelters are available but are far less spacious and have sparse interiors, often without Internet access or cellphone signal.
By contrast, the subway network, known as Tel Aviv Light Rail, dates from 2023 and is in mint condition. All trains have been stopped since Israel launched mass air strikes on Iran on February 28 so that people can sleep at the stations.
The network was also used for this purpose during the 12-day war that Israel and the United States fought against Iran in June 2025.
But still, it’s not home.
One level above the platform, a group of Moldovans are camping out in the ticket hall. A woman who identified herself only as Olessya was with her partner and her pet parrot, which hopped between her head and her shoulder.
'It's Unsettling And Scary For Everyone'
“We’re not sleeping so well here. Not like at home. It’s cold, a concrete [floor], we’re getting sick. We’re not eating in good conditions. We're worried about what's happening outside. It's unsettling and scary for everyone,” she said.
“We’ve slept here since February 28 because our house doesn’t have a shelter, so we have to come here,” she added.
Nearby, another man identifies himself simply as Yousuf. A 19-year-old refugee from Cote D’Ivoire, he said he had spent most of his life in Israel and was waiting for citizenship.
“I never sleep here. Some of my friends do,” he said. “People are sleeping here because of the war. I don’t know when it’s going to end, but I hope it’s soon.”
This is a sentiment many people agree with.
“I am afraid for my loved ones,” said Apirion, the special needs teacher, as we parted. “It's the same fear for all of us, for every person. We want to protect our family, our home, our friends -- people that we love.”
In Israel, which has state-of-the-art air defenses, there have been 14 civilian fatalities as of March 9. Nine of these were in a single strike by an Iranian ballistic missile at Beit Shemesh, about 30 kilometers west of Jerusalem, after a direct hit on a housing block.
Drones and rockets are also being fired from Lebanon by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group regarded as a terrorist organization by both Israel and the United States.
- By Ray Furlong
Israeli Opposition Leader Yair Lapid Tells RFE/RL Iran's Oil ‘Lifeline' Must Be Cut
TEL AVIV -- Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition in Israel, says air strikes on Iranian oil fields --which have showered Tehran in black rain -- were needed to cut the “lifeline of the regime” in Iran.
Speaking to RFE/RL at a downtown location hit on March 8 by falling debris from an intercepted Iranian missile, Lapid also indicated that Israel reserves the right to strike any new supreme leader who takes power following the death last weekend of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“It depends who is the leader,” he said. “This is our way of protecting ourselves from death and destruction. Because, you know, this is what this regime is.”
Lapid, who was Israel's prime minister for several months in 2022 before Benjamin Netanyahu returned to office, has strongly backed the Israeli government’s decision to launch airstrikes on Iran on February 28, which included those that killed Khamenei.
The body in charge of selecting Iran's new supreme leader said on March 8 it had reached a decision on a new leader, but did not immediately reveal the name of the choice.
US President Donald Trump said earlier on March 8 that any new supreme leader "is not going to last long" without White House approval.
Lapid's support comes despite the bitter battles he has fought against Netanyahu on domestic policies and the Gaza Strip.
“I can't remember a time when we stood that united and that determined,” he said, praising the “spirit of the Israeli people.”
RFE/RL has approached Netanyahu’s Likud party for comment. In recent days, Likud lawmakers and ministers have rarely given media interviews.
Netanyahu's Televised Address
In a televised addressed on March 7, Netanyahu said Israel had an "organized plan with many surprises" in store. Netanyahu told Israelis the campaign would "destabilize the regime" and that "the moment of truth is drawing near."
In his role of official opposition leader, Lapid gets security briefings directly from Netanyahu.
Asked whether Netanyahu’s remarks meant that regime-change was imminent in Iran, Lapid said “I find it hard to believe that there is a real possibility for regime change with airstrikes."
"I think ‘boots-on-the-ground’ is not inevitable, but maybe it's not the greatest idea. What we are doing now is creating the conditions or enabling the people of Iran to change their own fate,” the 62-year-old added.
A part of this, he said, were strikes on Iran’s oil industry. Israel made what appeared to be its first attack on oil facilities on March 7. The next morning, dark, polluted clouds clogged the sky and black rain fell on Tehran.
“This is where the money is coming from. They spent the last...40 years building nuclear sites instead of building an economy for themselves. So, what they have is those oil sites. So, eliminating them will help cutting the lifeline of the regime,” Lapid said.
'Heartbreaking' Civilian Deaths In Iran
The current US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have decapitated the country’s clerical leadership and substantially weakened its military.
They have also caused civilian casualties.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says more than 1,200 civilians have been killed, including nearly 200 children. In Israel, which has state-of-the-art air defenses, there have been 12 civilian fatalities.
Asked about the toll on civilians, Lapid pointed to the damaged building behind him.
“Look around you. Where are we? This is not a military site, right? So. the Iranians are intentionally trying to kill civilians,” he said.
“Sometimes bystanders and the innocent are killed, especially when it's children. It's heartbreaking. Children should not die in grown-ups' wars. Yet it's a mistake. Here, they are doing it intentionally.”
- By Kian Sharifi
Wladimir Van Wilgenburg: Kurdish Groups Need US 'Guarantees' Before Iran Offensive
The United States is considering arming Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in neighboring Iraq, according to reports, with the aim of fomenting an uprising inside the Islamic republic.
The possibility of the United States supplying weapons to the exiled groups and supporting potential cross-border ground attacks in western Iran comes amid a joint US-Israeli aerial campaign against Tehran, launched on February 28.
US President Donald Trump on March 5 encouraged the over half a dozen exiled Iranian Kurdish groups to attack Iran. "I think it's wonderful that they want to do that. I'd be all for it," he said.
Tehran has responded by intensifying attacks on camps and bases operated by the Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region.
Trump appeared to walk back his comments on March 8, telling reporters that he does "not want the Kurds to go into Iran" because the war is "complicated enough as it is."
RFE/RL spoke to Wladimir van Wilgenburg, an on-the-ground reporter and analyst specializing in Kurdish affairs who said the Iranian Kurdish groups are deeply cautious about becoming entangled in the US-Israeli war on Iran.
RFE/RL: What considerations do you think these Kurdish groups are weighing before launching their offensive into Iran?
Wladimir van Wilgenburg: These Kurdish groups will not launch an offensive if they don't have any guarantees for any form of political recognition. We saw with the Kurds in Syria that the US didn't give any promises. After there was no more need for them to fight ISIS [the Islamic State extremist group], they were abandoned, and the US administration worked with the new authorities in Damascus.
The Kurds in Iran don't want a repetition of that scenario where they basically fight the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps] and, when the war is over, the US administration says it was just a transactional relationship and 'bye-bye.'
RFE/RL: Do you think there is going to be an incursion?
Van Wilgenburg: There has been no incursion. The gist [of it] is that the Kurdish groups are preparing for such an offensive and have had some talks with US officials. I don't know on what level, whether government or military, but they're just in an exploration phase of relations.
I don't think there have been any decisions so far to go inside [Iran]. We also saw statements by Iraqi Kurdish officials saying they don't want to be part of this regional war [and are] calling for calm. Today, there was a statement by a senior defense official in Iran threatening Iraqi Kurdistan, saying if any of those groups cross, the retaliation will be very heavy.
RFE/RL: If they do eventually launch an offensive, what is the ultimate goal? Is it regime change, or a push for an independent Kurdistan?
Van Wilgenburg: The Kurds in Iran have always had a historical focus on autonomy. They are not focused on an independent Kurdish state. What they want is a federal Iran with democracy, secularism, and autonomy for Iranian Kurds.
There's no goal to separate. Their idea is to go only to the Kurdish areas -- not like in Syria, where Kurdish forces went to non-Kurdish areas like Deir al-Zor and Raqqa. The idea is to create a sort of safe haven for the Iranian opposition.
Currently, there are calls for defections [from the state] and protests [against the authorities], but there's no safe haven for the opposition to go to. It would be similar to how the Iraqi Kurdish opposition was hosted in [Iran's] Kurdistan Province in the 1990s.
RFE/RL: Regarding Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), if Iranian Kurds decide to launch an incursion, would the KRG have the power or the desire to stop them?
Van Wilgenburg: Most of the bases for these Iranian Kurdish parties are in [the regional capital] Erbil and Sulaymaniyah Province, so they are quite dependent on the KRG's tolerance. One reason they are tolerated is the understanding that they would not carry out armed action.
There was also an agreement between Baghdad and Tehran in 2023 to disarm these parties, which is why some camps are currently empty. However, you have groups who are not dependent on the KRG because they control their own areas in the mountains. The other parties are very close to urban areas in the Kurdistan region and are more restricted.
RFE/RL: Were those groups actually disarmed as part of that 2023 agreement?
Van Wilgenburg: There were a lot of conflicting media reports about that in the Kurdish media, but there has been no official confirmation.
RFE/RL: Given the history, how wary are these groups of working with the United States as a partner?
Van Wilgenburg: They are worried it could be a transactional relationship, so they prefer guarantees. They have their own issues with the Islamic republic, but they aren't going to risk a fight if they would lose everything.
History shows this: The Mahabad Republic [a short-lived and unrecognized Kurdish state] collapsed after Soviet support ended, and after the 1979 revolution, [Islamic republic founder Ruhollah] Khomeini launched a military operation against the Kurds after they had taken control of their areas.
They fear a new centralist government in Tehran might do the same. They want guarantees that it will be a federal state, similar to the relationship between the Kurdistan region and the central government in Baghdad.
RFE/RL: Do the Kurds currently have the weaponry to cause significant trouble for the Islamic republic?
Van Wilgenburg: Their numbers are not that large, but the situation can change quickly. In Syria, the Kurdish groups started small and grew into the SDF [Syrian Defense Forces], which is over 100,000-strong. If they go inside and get US air support and weapons, it would be very easy to crush [Iran's] defenses in Kurdish-majority areas.
Most IRGC and Basij [paramilitary] soldiers there are not native to the area. If Iran doesn't control the airspace, it will be very difficult for them to hold those areas, even with their advanced drones and ballistic missiles. Kurdish officials say they could take these areas in a very short period if there is a US decision to support them.
RFE/RL: Is there any truth to reports that the United States or Israel are already arming these groups?
Van Wilgenburg: There is a lot of speculation based on anonymous sources. On the ground, you don't see any new weapons. The fighters still have their old Kalashnikovs. There are no physical or public signs yet. But logically, if there is a decision to support them, they will be armed.
The US did that with the Iraqi opposition, the Kurds in Syria, and via CIA programs for other rebels. Such programs could be repeated, but there are no signs of those arms in the hands of Iranian Kurds yet.
- By Ray Furlong
Iranian Jews In Israel Speak Of Pain And Hope Amid Conflict
TEL AVIV -- Bijan Bahordari has two flags in the window of his fast-food restaurant: the blue-and-white Israeli Star of David and that of pre-revolutionary Iran, the green-white-red tricolor with a golden lion and sun in the center.
After ladling stuffed peppers, rice, and a rich red sauce into a takeaway container for a customer, he stopped to talk about what it's like to witness his adopted homeland at war with the land of his birth.
"I wish and I hope that they finish the regime now. And I am waiting to go back there. Seventeen years, I lived there. And I remember everything," he told RFE/RL. "In the morning, I check my phone, the radio, the TV -- it doesn't matter what."
Bahordari left Iran as a teenager to go traveling in 1978. While he was away, the Shah of Iran was toppled and the Islamic republic was established. Bahordari has never returned.
He's now married in Israel, has children, and for 10 years has been running the New Food Of Life cafe at Levinsky Market, an area dotted with Persian businesses.
There are an estimated 250,000 Iranian Jews in Israel, defined as Jews born in Iran plus second and third generations. Bahordari is slightly unusual, since he moved here before the Islamic Revolution. Most others came afterward.
One such Iranian is the owner of a shop selling nuts and dried fruit a few steps from Bahordari's business. Identifying himself simply as Meir, he said he had come to Israel in 1979. The current war, he said, left him with mixed feelings -- but also hope.
"It's very strange. Everything is strange. We attack each other. But it is for a good cause. The Iranian people are suffering. Their government is evil, very bad for all the world -- not just for Iran," he said, switching from English to Hebrew to make his point clearly.
But while he is hopeful about the future, he also acknowledged the dangers of the current situation -- not only that there are civilian casualties in Iran, but also that regime change could have unpredictable and potentially violent consequences of its own.
"I would be very disappointed and sad if it turns out like that. Not just me, a lot of people all over the world. We are strongly connected via social networks. We're all praying. We all applaud," he said.
Listing a roll-call of countries where the Iranian diaspora is scattered, he said that earlier "they were afraid to speak out. But now, they feel confident. We are expecting the regime to fall."
Iran still has a Jewish population. Estimates of its size vary from a few thousand people to somewhere in the 10,000 to 20,000 range. This population was much higher prior to 1979.
Many Jews fled in the aftermath of the revolution as the new authorities adopted a sharp anti-Israel stance, including not recognizing Israel's right to exist. The 1979 execution of Habib Elghanian, a prominent figure in the Tehran Jewish community, helped further prompt an exodus to Israel and other countries, particularly the United States.
Part of that exodus was Nicola, who was 9 years old when her family left Iran in 1979. Now a holistic therapist in Jerusalem, she recalled being told at 10 o'clock one night that she would be leaving the next morning. She said she was allowed to take three items.
Nicola chose not to give her surname because of concerns for the safety of her mother, now aged 77, who chose to stay in Iran and is still there now.
"One eye is crying and the other eye is happy," she said, about the current situation.
"I'm praying that after 47 years the regime will fall…. I'm crying because I know the price that people in Iran are paying," she added.
Back at Bahordari's Tel Aviv cafe, he pointed to a wall of photos showing famous guests including Israeli actors and singers. The wall also features portraits of the late shah and his wife.
With tears welling in his eyes, Bahordari revealed his dream.
"I will make another restaurant -- very big -- in Iran. And I'll put the flags of Israel, the United States, and Iran, and [a picture of] the shah, together. It's going to be very, very special," he said.
- By Ray Furlong and
- RFE/RL
Iranian Jews In Israel Hope For Regime Change In Birthland
RFE/RL’s Ray Furlong visits a Persian spice market in Tel Aviv where Iranian Jewish shopkeepers and stallholders say they’re in a “strange” situation -- but hope that the war will bring political change in the land of their birth.
Iran Names Khamenei's Son As New Supreme Leader Despite Trump Warning
Iran has named hard-liner Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader, likely putting him directly in the sights of the US and Israeli militaries.
Iran's Assembly of Experts, responsible for electing the new ruler, said on March 8 that it had "designated and introduced Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei as the third Supreme Leader of the sacred system of the Islamic Republic of Iran."
As supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei will have final say in all political and military matters and hold near-dictatorial powers.
The appointment also makes him a target for US and Israeli forces, who killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on February 28 as they launched a war against Iran that has spread throughout the region.
'An Unacceptable Choice'
The decision comes after US President Donald Trump earlier called Mojtaba Khamenei -- then seen as the favorite to succeed his father -- an "unacceptable choice" and a "lightweight" and insisted that anyone chosen by Tehran must be acceptable to Washington.
Trump told ABC News that “if he [the next supreme leader] doesn’t get approval from us, he’s not going to last long,” adding that there are “numerous people that could qualify” for the role.
"We don't have to go back every five years and do this again and again...[We seek] somebody that's going to be great for the people, great for the country," Trump said.
In an interview with the Times of Israel shortly after the Khamenei announcement, Trump declined to comment directly on the move, saying only, "We'll see what happens."
Hours before the announcement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) warned that “Israel will continue to follow any successor and anyone who seeks to appoint a successor” and that it would “not hesitate to target” any of the dozens of Assembly of Experts members participating in the meeting to choose the successor.
“Iran having a new leader would help them advance their war against us,” IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani said on March 8. “Iran not having a leader is something that makes it hard for them to operate the war machine against us.”
Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition in Israel, told RFE/RL in an interview on March 8 that Israel reserves the right to strike any new supreme leader who takes power following the death of Ali Khamenei.
When asked ahead of the announcement whether Israel should attempt to kill the new leader, Lipid said, "Well, it depends on who is the leader."
"I hope they will find something very different from what they have there right now," he said of the Iranian leadership. "What we have there is a terror organization."
Shortly after the Khamenei announcement was made, Iran said it fired a volley of missiles toward Israel.
"Iran fires first wave of missiles under Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei toward occupied territories," state broadcaster IRIB said on its Telegram channel. It also posted a photo of a projectile with the words: "At Your Command, Sayyid Mojtaba."
Defiant Assembly Of Experts
In announcing the decision, Iran's Assembly of Experts appeared defiant, saying it made the choice "despite the acute war situation and direct threats from enemies."
Mojtaba Khamenei was known to have close ties to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which wields considerable military power in the country, separate from the regular armed forces.
The hard-line IRGC was quick to endorse the choice of the new leader, pledging "allegiance" to him, according to state media. The leaders of the armed forces also pledged to follow Khamenei as the new ruler.
Powerful national-security chief Ali Larijani, also considered a hard-liner, called for unity around the new supreme leader, saying the Assembly made the choice in spite of threats to target the electing body.
Strikes On Iran Continue
Meanwhile, the United States and Israel carried out new air strikes on strategic infrastructure in and around Tehran on March 8, including oil depots and refining facilities, as Israeli forces also expanded their operations beyond Iran.
Large fires were reported at several fuel storage sites in Tehran, sending heavy smoke over parts of the capital. Iranian officials confirmed that multiple oil facilities were damaged, although emergency teams managed to bring some fires under control.
Iran continued to strike back at several Gulf states that are hosting US military assets, despite an apology from President Masud Pezeshkian expressing sorry for earlier attacks on Washington's Arab allies.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, reported new attacks or interceptions of Iranian drones and missiles on March 7 and 8.
Air defense systems across the region were activated to intercept incoming projectiles, with multiple explosions reported as defenses engaged Iranian drones and missiles.
Trump: US 'Not Looking To The Kurds Going In'
In comments a day earlier, Trump said he does not want ethnic Kurds to launch an attack on the Iranian regime. The remarks came after conflicting reports as to whether Trump was encouraging a ground offensive by Iranian Kurdish exiles based in Iraq.
"We're not looking to the Kurds going in," he told reporters aboard Air Force One. "We're very friendly with the Kurds, as you know, but we don't want to make the war any more complex than it already is."
"I don't want to see the Kurds get hurt and killed. They're willing to go in, but I've told them I don't want them going in. The war's complicated enough without getting the Kurds involved," he said.
On March 5, Trump had told Reuters he would be "all for" an offensive by Iranian Kurdish fighters in support of the US-Israeli effort.
- By Frud Bezhan
With Top Brass Dead, Iran Deploys Decentralized 'Mosaic' Strategy To Boost Defenses
Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has decentralized its command-and-control structure, handing junior ranks more power to respond to the massive US-Israeli aerial bombardment of the Islamic republic.
The joint air campaign that began on February 28 has killed numerous senior military and political leaders, including IRGC chief Mohammad Pakpour and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had the final say on all matters of the state.
With its leadership decimated, Iran has activated a so-called mosaic defensive strategy, which is designed to empower local IRGC commanders during wartime. While boosting the resilience of Iran's armed forces, the strategy also raises the risks of miscalculation, experts say.
"It is designed to help the local provincial IRGC and their accompanying Basij elements to defend against an outside invading force," said Farzin Nadimi, a defense specialist at the Washington Institute.
The IRGC, the elite branch of Iran's armed forces and the backbone of the country's theocracy, is believed to have around 150,000 troops, with army, navy, and air units. It also commands the volunteer Basij paramilitary force, which is estimated to have around 1 million members.
Decentralization has been a key part of the IRGC's doctrine since around 2009, when the force was reorganized. Each of Iran's 31 provinces has its own IRGC headquarters, command-and-control structure, and chain of command.
"Every province is a mosaic, and the commanders have the ability and power to make decisions," said Nadimi. "So, when they are cut off from their command in Tehran, they can still be able to function as a cohesive military force."
Speaking to Al Jazeera TV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on March 1 that "our military units are now independent and somehow isolated, and they are acting based on instructions -- general instructions -- given to them in advance."
Doctrine Holding For Now
The approach appears to be working for now. Iran has responded to heavy US and Israeli bombardment by firing unprecedented barrages of ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones at Israel, US military and diplomatic facilities across the Middle East, and critical energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.
"That implies the command-and-control system is still functioning, at least for now," said Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The region is likely to experience an ongoing Iranian retaliation campaign for as long as there are missiles and launchers there."
But it is unclear if the IRGC can maintain cohesion as the United States and Israel strike the country's military infrastructure, including its stockpiles of short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles, and target mid-ranking provincial commanders.
If the IRGC runs out of missiles or if most of its facilities are damaged or destroyed, the force has "few capabilities beyond their strategic deterrents," said Bruchmann.
Iranian forces rely heavily on missiles and drones, and "with their production facilities above ground hit, the capacity to replenish stocks is at least in doubt," he added.
'Double-Edged Sword'
Iran's mosaic strategy is designed to make the IRGC more resilient. But the decentralized command-and-control structure could also fuel chaos, experts say.
"Decentralized military units will be more difficult to find and finish off" for the United States and Israel, said Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank. "But they will also be less impactful because they won't achieve critical mass."
"Some of the more disciplined and elite units will be able to stay in the fight, while other, less experienced units will fall victim to confusion and disorder," added Clarke. "I would also suspect that the US and Israel are waging a psychological operations campaign that will exacerbate this issue for the IRGC."
US President Donald Trump has demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" and called on the country's armed forces to lay down their weapons or face "certain death." He said those who surrendered would be granted immunity.
Experts warn that the decentralized wartime conditions increases the risk of uncoordinated drone and missile strikes and navigation errors that could trigger unintended escalation.
That could help explain Iranian missiles and drones hitting civilian areas like hotels and shopping malls in the Persian Gulf, analysts said.
NATO-member Turkey said it intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile in its border region on March 4. Another of Iran's neighbors, Azerbaijan, accused Tehran of firing drones at an airport in its Nakhchivan region on March 5. In both cases, the head of Iran's armed forces issued unusually direct denials.
- By RFE/RL
Iran War Ripples Across Middle East, Caucasus With New Attacks
The war in Iran is widening across the Middle East and beyond, with incidents stretching from the Persian Gulf to the South Caucasus and raising fears the conflict could escalate into a broader regional confrontation.
Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a ballistic missile fired toward a base housing US forces on March 7, while Azerbaijan accused Iran-linked operatives of plotting sabotage targeting a major oil pipeline and Jewish sites.
Heavy air strikes were reported in Iran overnight and early on March 7, with Tehran's Mehrabad Airport and the nearby town of Ekbatan both being hit, among other targets.
At the same time, cross-border strikes between Israel and Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon continued and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it had attacked a Maltese-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz using an "explosive drone" as Tehran looks to broaden its response to the US-Israeli military campaign.
The string of developments underscores how a war that began with coordinated US-Israeli air strikes on Iran on February 28 is rippling across neighboring regions, threatening energy infrastructure and raising the possibility of new fronts as the war enters its second week.
Analysts say Tehran's strategy appears aimed at raising the cost of the conflict for Washington.
"The region is likely to experience an ongoing Iranian retaliation campaign for as long as there are missiles and launchers there," Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, told RFE/RL.
But Iran also appears to be moving to quell any regional backlash. In a rare apology on March 7, Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said in a video message that he would like to "personally apologize to neighboring countries that were affected by Iran’s actions" as he urged them not to join the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.
He said Iran's temporary leadership council had agreed to suspend attacks on nearby states unless strikes on Iran originated from their territory, but hours later the IRGC Navy launched a drone attack on the US al-Dhafra airbase in the UAE, according to the Tasnim news agency, a semiofficial news agency associated with the IRGC.
The report claims that a US satellite communications center and early-warning and fire-control radars were hit, but RFE/RL was unable to independently verify the attack. The UAE's Defense Ministry said it responded to incoming missile and drone threats from Iran but has not confirmed the attack on the US airbase.
Pezeshkian also rejected US President Donald Trump's demand for "unconditional surrender," saying that "the Americans can take their demand of a surrender of the Iranian people to their graves."
Shortly afterward, Trump announced in a message on his social media that the US military is considering expanding the range of targets inside Iran, including areas and individuals, or "complete destruction and death."
Alleged Iranian Plot To Target Oil Pipeline
Azerbaijan said it had thwarted a plot linked to the IRGC to attack several targets inside the country.
According to a statement from Azerbaijan’s State Security Service released late on March 6, the alleged plan included attacks on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, the Israeli Embassy in Baku, an Ashkenazi synagogue, and a prominent member of Azerbaijan's Mountain Jewish community.
Authorities said two Iranian citizens and one Azerbaijani national were involved in smuggling more than 7 kilograms of C-4 explosives into the country under instructions from the IRGC. Investigators said international arrest warrants had been issued for four suspects.
Iran hasn't publicly responded to the accusations but said earlier this week, after a drone incident, that it isn't seeking to target Azerbaijan.
Any disruption to the pipeline could tighten global energy supplies already rattled by the expanding war.
Tehran has threatened to "set ablaze" any Western tanker attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which provides a vital trade route for about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. At least nine vessels have been attacked since US-Israeli strikes began, according to Lloyd’s List, a maritime intelligence firm.
The BTC pipeline runs through Georgia and Turkey and transports Caspian crude to Mediterranean export terminals, supplying European markets. The route also accounts for roughly a third of Israel's oil imports.
The plot follows another incident earlier this week that heightened tensions between Baku and Tehran. Azerbaijani officials said Iranian drones struck infrastructure in the country’s Nakhchivan exclave on March 5, injuring civilians and damaging an airport.
As Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, the United States condemned it, describing the strikes as a "needless escalation" of aggression.
Attacks Ripple Across The Middle East
Saudi Arabia said on March 7 that it had intercepted a ballistic missile fired toward Prince Sultan Air Base southeast of Riyadh, which hosts US military personnel. The Saudi Defense Ministry said the missile was destroyed before reaching its target.
In a separate attack, Saudi air defenses shot down six drones targeting the Shaybah oil field near the border with the United Arab Emirates, according to the state-run Saudi Press Agency. Officials said the drones were intercepted over the Empty Quarter desert in the south of the country.
The attacks follow several earlier drone strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure this week, including attempted attacks on the Ras Tanura refinery on the kingdom’s eastern coast.
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman warned Iran against further “miscalculations,” saying such actions threatened regional security and stability.
The rising attacks have rattled global energy markets. Brent crude prices surged more than 8 percent in a single day this week and have climbed nearly 30 percent since the conflict intensified.
Elsewhere, Israel has continued to exchange fire with Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon as Tehran's network of regional allies -- often referred to as the "axis of resistance" -- weighs how far to escalate the confrontation.
Iran itself has responded to the US-Israeli strikes by launching waves of drones and missiles at Israeli targets and striking US military facilities across the region, including in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
The UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia have all reported drone and missile attacks over the past week.
- By Ray Furlong
After A Week Of War, Israel Sees Progress But Long Road Ahead
TEL AVIV -- Hidden away on a small street in a central district of town, the ruins of war come as something of a surprise. On nearby streets, hipsters fill outdoor cafes, Lime scooters clutter the sidewalks, and children play in parks. But turn a corner and you'll see blackened walls, smashed windows, and rubble-strewn cars.
This is almost the only site in Tel Aviv that bears the scars of war, following an Iranian strike on the first night of the conflict. As such, it bears witness to the destructive power of Tehran's ballistic missiles. But the lack of other such sites underlines Israel's ability to shoot them down.
It's an aspect of the war so far that is having a profound impact on how Israel approaches what comes next.
"The Israeli point of view is that, well, things are going back to normal here, more or less. We just have a few sirens a day. I mean, we are used to it. We can tolerate it," former lawmaker Ksenia Svetlova told RFE/RL.
The implication? For Israel, the long game is an easy choice.
"The Iranians right now are running low on ballistic missiles and specifically on launchers, but they still have drones. The drones cannot hurt Israel much. We know how to intercept them," said Svetlova, now executive director of an NGO called ROPES -- the Regional Organization for Peace, Economics, and Security.
There is indeed an air of routine rather than alarm as people here make their way down to underground shelters whenever alerts sound on their phone apps.
Israel's capacity to intercept incoming drones and missiles is measurable by the civilian casualty toll, with 12 fatalities after a week of conflict. Meanwhile, Israeli and US forces have decapitated the Iranian leadership and appear to have massively downgraded Tehran's military capabilities.
"We are striking the enemy, its leadership, its oppressive regime, and different targets," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on March 6, while visiting Beersheba, where some 20 people were injured in an Iranian strike earlier in the week.
The bullish tone in his remarks on the progress of the war matched the iconography of resolve that lines the streets here: Israeli and US flags can be seen everywhere, as can billboards depicting a Roaring Lion -- this country's military codename for the operation called Epic Fury by Washington.
Netanyahu has long called for regime change in Iran, as well as the destruction of its nuclear and missile programs. He has said the aim of this operation is "to crush the regime of terror completely."
Opinion polls show Israelis overwhelmingly support the war. Longstanding Netanyahu critics do, too.
Veteran opposition politician Avigdor Liberman told RFE/RL the war was going "very well" but that the "final result" was the key issue. This, he said, had to be "to topple this regime."
Liberman, who has served as ministers of defense, foreign affairs, and finance in various governments over the years, said he was confident this could be achieved but did not explain how.
The "worst case" would be Iran descending into "chaos" he said.
"It's really a huge question because what we saw in Libya, Iraq, Syria, it's real turmoil. But from all alternatives...the worst alternative is if [the clerical authorities] will continue to rule Iran," he said.
But reserve Major General Yaakov Amidror, a former national-security adviser for Netanyahu who clashed with him over policy on the West Bank, suggested the talk of regime change may not be serious.
"The goal of the war is a very strong agreement" between Israel and the United States, he told an event held by the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JSIS) this week.
"First, to eliminate totally any ability which is connected either to the missiles or to the nuclear project. Any guy who was there, any building which was connected, any place which was connected, any capability which is needed, everything should be totally destroyed…. I think that both sides understand regime change is something that cannot be guaranteed," he said.
Given this, he added, the main aim was simply to cause as much damage as possible.
"What should be ensured by the operation, by the war, is that any regime, this one or another one, will be very, very weak," Amidror said.
The Israeli government has also not explained in detail how regime change could be achieved. There has been speculation in recent days about Iraqi Kurdish militias crossing the border and sparking an uprising.
Svetlova, who as a Knesset legislator was closely engaged in relations with Kurdish groups, said they would be "skeptical" of the idea, at least in the short term.
Which brings us back to the long game. On March 6, US President Donald Trump gave a timeframe of four to six weeks to achieve Iran's "unconditional surrender."
The Israeli government hopes "that the war will, first of all, last long enough" to sufficiently degrade Iran's defense and security capabilities, Svetlova said.
"In the end of the day, there will be maybe a beginning of civil war in Iran, between the various minority militias, the Basij [militia] forces, the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps)of course, the Iranian protests will resume, and then the regime will have to fight on many fronts rather than just one.... I think that's the hope."
- By Ray Furlong
Israeli NGO Head Ksenia Svetlova: Iran Still 'Firing Like Crazy'
TEL AVIV -- Israel has made an impressive start to military operations against Iran but may be not much closer to its goals than a week ago, former Knesset member Ksenia Svetlova told RFE/RL in an interview at her home in Tel Aviv on March 6.
Svetlova, who is now executive director of an NGO called ROPES (Regional Organization for Peace, Economics, and Security), said there were few examples of "regimes that fall just as a result of air strikes" and was skeptical of the idea that Iraqi Kurdish militias would want to get involved in the fight.
RFE/RL: We are almost a week into the conflict. From an Israeli perspective, where are we? How do things stand after a week?
Ksenia Svetlova: In a military sense, the IDF [Israeli Defense Force] briefs us regularly that there are fantastic achievements and that there is less [Iranian] rocket potential, that a lot of the launching stations were destroyed. And, actually, we do see less fire, less volume of fire here in Israel.
I am absolutely sure they are achieving the goals that they put ahead of them, in the military sense. Whether that will bring us to the ultimate goal [as far as] Israel is concerned, the ultimate goal is the downfall of the regime. There is nothing else there. No agreement will be good enough. No alternative Iranian regime will be good enough within the frame of the Islamic republic.
Are we closer now to this goal than the week before? I'm not sure of that at all.
RFE/RL: What gives you pause then? What makes you hesitant about that?
Svetlova: I know a little bit about the history of trying to collapse regimes. There is some confusion here about the nature of the Iranian regime. I'm not sure if this confusion derives from the lack of expertise currently in the American administration or some other reason, or perhaps some hubris that, with this amazing armada and this firepower, what else can happen?
They are [bound] to fall. But the Iranian regime, from what we know -- and again, I'm not an Iran expert, but it's a multilayered, very well-structured revolutionary regime that prepared for this moment for 47 years. And we have very [few] examples of regimes that fell as a result of just air strikes. And even a ground invasion doesn't always promise this kind of outcome.
That's why we hear from the White House right now mixed signals about the possibility of some ground operation there, because they understand that they cannot achieve this very specific goal of collapsing the regime as we speak.
For now, the Iranian regime [is] probably weakened by the strikes, but they're firing like crazy, involving more and more states every single day. They are still controlling the streets, from the little, scarce information that we get from Iran. Here, from Israel, looking at Iran, I do not see yet any signs of collapse of the regime.
RFE/RL: The Israeli government launched these air strikes. Those air strikes were the first thing we heard about this war. Does the Israeli government have a strategy to bring down the regime beyond air strikes?
Svetlova: This is a combination of Israeli prowess and expertise and firepower and American might. It's not an Israeli operation per se.
While the Israelis definitely know how to do the first strike and to overwhelm completely the systems there and to assassinate who was assassinated there -- this is of course a great achievement. But rather than that, I think that the war is being planned in the Pentagon, not in Israel. Whether Israel has its own plans for collapsing the regime, that I don't know.
RFE/RL: What's the hope, then, in Netanyahu's government that the Pentagon's planning to do?
Svetlova: I think they hope the war will first of all last long enough, that it will not end in five days or in six days, because it will definitely take much more if you want to completely destroy physically the basis of the regime. You cannot destroy the institutions per se, but you can destroy the Basij bases and the police stations and all of that. So they're doing it right now, every single day.
Then there will be, maybe, the beginning of a civil war in Iran, between the various minority militias and Basij forces, the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps). Of course, the Iranian protests will resume, and then the regime will have to fight on many fronts rather than just on the military front. Eventually it will be so weak that it will just collapse with perhaps some push from some security agencies here and there.
That's the hope, realistically. Whether it's achievable or not [is] yet to be seen. But at least for now, if somebody thought -- and this is perhaps a bit of a bold comparison, to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's hope to take over Kyiv in three days, which didn't happen, obviously, and he's there for four years.
If anybody thought that just as a result of air strikes, and I think that in Israel at the level of the public, there was this kind of hope -- well, they are hitting them so hard, how could they not collapse? And also Trump…was astonished, like, wow, they're not raising the white flag…. Well, I think that anybody who deals with the Middle East understands exactly why it's not happening.
RFE/RL: What, then, are the implications of all this for the broader region, the Persian Gulf in particular?
Svetlova: Specifically for the Arab countries, it's the loss of security. They bill themselves as this safe hub, a wonder, a miracle in the desert. They've practically positioned themselves as not so much a part of the Middle East: We are something else, we are something different. And yet the Middle East came to them, to their doorstep.
If it continues, the implications will be very broad for energy markets, of course, but also for the positioning of these countries as safe hubs. They attracted so much human capital and also financial capital, under the promise that…they will be safe.
They are not safe anymore. And if the Iranian regime survives -- and there are significant chances that they will survive -- they will continue to terrorize these states, not only through drone attacks and so on, but also physical terror.
We heard yesterday that the Saudi officials are cutting their interviews and public appearances and so on for fear being targeted. This is something they did not experience for a long, long time. It's like going back to the '80s, beginning of the '90s in this sense.
Israel is much more prepared for that, but the broader Middle East is not. Europe is not prepared for that at all, for the halt of supplies of gas, LNG in Qatar and so on. The Middle East cannot tolerate this international crisis. It's not a Middle Eastern crisis.
RFE/RL: Can't tolerate it -- but can't do anything about it.
Svetlova: I don't know what they can do. I'm looking at the Gulf states, with all the brand-new weapons they acquired from the US and Europe and other countries. They don't much have an army, a real army. So they can join or not join Donald Trump. It will be perhaps significant symbolically, but not in any other sense.
What can they do? Can the US right now be pushed through the UN Security Council? No, the answer is no. So then, what can anybody do about that? When Donald Trump will feel that he [has realized] some of these goals, then it will stop, but not before that.
RFE/RL: One of the things that's being discussed quite a lot over the last couple of days is the idea of Kurdish militias from Iraq being the ground forces, effectively. When you were a member of parliament, you were involved in outreach, in contact with Kurdish organizations and Kurdish communities, including in Iraq. How do you rate the likelihood of such a scenario?
Svetlova: We have to differentiate between the two things. You can support Kurdish independence, the right to self-determination. I support the Palestinian right to self-determination. I also support the Kurdish right to self-determination, just like I support for my own people, the Jewish people, the right for self-determination.
How can it be achieved? For now, Kurds were disappointed time and again, cooperating with the United States.
Many Kurds will be hesitant about engaging in something like this, which might be extremely risky, given the regime is not collapsing yet. It's a very different thing, arming and participating in the armed struggle when you have the first signs that the regime is almost done -- you need a little push, but then it will be gone. This is not the case with the Iranian regime yet. This is first.
Second, I don't think that only by arming the ethnic minorities…the West will be able to have an advantage significantly in overwhelming the Iranian regime. I think it will actually give the Iranians more pretense to use this rally around the flag thing. And given the rising nationalism among the Iranians who are Persians, it can actually distract them from struggling with this regime because they will say, well, these are not our goals.
The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
'A Dangerous Situation': Azerbaijan Fears Becoming Embroiled In Widening Iran War
Fears are growing in Azerbaijan, Iran's northwestern neighbor, that the South Caucasus country could become embroiled in the US-Israeli war on Tehran that is widening in scope.
Baku accused Iran of firing drones that struck an airport and school in Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan autonomous region on March 5, calling it an "act of terror" and vowing to respond. Tehran denied it fired the drones that injured two people.
The incident has heightened concerns in Azerbaijan -- which has close military, economic, and energy ties to Israel, Tehran's archenemy -- that it could become a target of the Islamic republic's expanding response to the massive US-Israeli air campaign launched on February 28.
Iran has retaliated by firing missiles and drones at US military and diplomatic facilities and striking key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Tehran's aim, experts say, is to expand the war and increase the cost of the conflict for Washington and its allies.
"This is a dangerous situation," said Jasur Mammadov, a Germany-based Azerbaijani military analyst. "Azerbaijan has a long border with Iran," and if Turkey, Baku's closest ally, is not involved, "it would be very difficult to defend the country," he added.
Much of the concern in Azerbaijan, an oil-rich country of around 10 million people, is centered around fears that Iran could target its energy infrastructure, including pipelines and production facilities.
"Iran has developed drone technology capable of flying as far as 1,000 kilometers," said Mammadov, referring to a long-range version of the Shahed drone that can travel around 1,500 kilometers. "That means it could easily reach Azerbaijan's energy infrastructure in the Caspian Sea, as well as any city."
Experts say Baku's close ties with Israel make it a potential Iranian target. Azerbaijan, which shares an around 700-kilomter border with Iran, is a major supplier of oil to Israel. Israel, in turn, is a seller of arms and drones to Baku.
"If Iranian energy infrastructure is struck [by Israel], Tehran could look at Azerbaijan's energy facilities as potential targets, given that the Israelis get so much of their energy from Azerbaijan," US-based Iran analyst Alex Vatanka said before the war began.
Despite its growing ties with Israel ties, Baku has repeatedly said it will not allow its territory or airspace to be used by any country to launch military operations against Iran.
Iran has long been critical of Israel's presence in Azerbaijan. Tehran has accused Baku of cooperating with Israeli intelligence -- allegations Azerbaijan denies.
A day before the drone attack in Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan region, President Ilham Aliyev made a rare visit to the Iranian Embassy in Baku to offer his condolences on the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli air strike in Tehran on February 28.
But on March 5, Aliyev's sentiment shifted.
"Iranian officials must provide an explanation to the Azerbaijani side, an apology must be offered, and those who committed this terrorist act must be held criminally liable," Aliyev said during a meeting of his security council.
Tehran denied it launched a drone attack on Azerbaijan. "The Islamic republic of Iran... denies its armed forces launched a drone toward the Republic of Azerbaijan," the general staff of the armed forces said in a statement, according to state TV, which blamed Israel.
Farhad Mammadov, an analyst close to the Azerbaijani government, said the drone attack will force Baku to take measures for its defense and begin consultations with Turkey.
Azerbaijan and Turkey share deep historical and cultural ties. In 2021, the sides expanded their "one nation, two states" partnership, under which both sides pledged to help the other if attacked.
During Azerbaijan's wars with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and 2023, Turkey supplied weapons to Baku, including advanced drones. Yerevan accused Turkey of direct involvement in the conflict, which Ankara and Baku denied.
Turkey's Foreign Ministry on March 5 condemned the drone attacks on Azerbaijan, calling for such attacks to end "immediately."
A day earlier, Turkey said a NATO defense system intercepted a ballistic missile in its border region. Iran rejected accusations that it launched a ballistic missile toward NATO-member Turkey.
"Turkey itself could feel threatened and may align closely with Azerbaijan," said Ata Mohammad Tabrizi, an Iranian analyst based in Turkey.
RFE/RL's Azerbaijani service contributed to this report.
Waiting Out The War: Stories Of Kyrgyz Citizens In Tehran
For Mamatmusa Ukubaev, the first explosions on February 28 were unnervingly close.
"There are military bases and facilities 1 or 2 kilometers away from us. They are being hit, too. The buildings usually have at least two floors for parking. They can be used as bomb shelters, and the authorities have made them open to the public," Ukubaev said, describing life in Tehran after the US–Israeli strikes began.
He noticed a strange mix of fear and curiosity among residents.
"People in Iran live on the streets. If bombs fall, they go up to the roof and watch. You don't see people running to shelters. I didn't leave the house for the first two days. But we ordered food from restaurants. There are fewer couriers, fewer taxi drivers, but they are still working."
Despite the danger, Ukubaev and his family have decided to stay, for now. He knows that if the situation worsens, there is a plan in place.
"The embassy weighed three or four options: Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Armenia. They decided the most convenient was via Baku. That's our plan. If it becomes serious, we need to drive to the border. They tell us which crossings are open. From there, we go to Baku and then fly to Kyrgyzstan."
While Ukubaev waits, another Kyrgyz citizen has already been evacuated.
Elmira Nurgaziyeva, who has lived in Iran for several years and works for an international organization, described her journey out of the country.
"Early yesterday, we left Tehran by buses. There were about 100 Russian citizens; I was the only Kyrgyz. The rest were from Russia and Belarus," she said. "The Russians escorted us to the Azerbaijani border town of Astara."
"I had official permission from Kyrgyzstan's embassy in Baku. I was allowed to cross the Azerbaijani border, so I had no problems. The Azerbaijani government transported us from Astara to Baku for free. I arrived in Baku on March 3," she said, reflecting on the long overland evacuation that brought her to safety.
According to Kyrgyz Ambassador Akylbek Kylichev, there are currently about 100 Kyrgyz citizens in Iran.
"Most of them are our women who married Iranian citizens many years ago. They now have families here and are settled. Some of them left after last year's war [in June 2025]. When the situation became dangerous, the embassy contacted all registered citizens and urged them to leave if possible. In the past few days, two citizens reached out to us. We evacuated them to Azerbaijan [on March 4]," the ambassador told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service.
As the conflict has escalated, Central Asian governments have been urging their citizens to leave Iran. Between February 28 and March 5, a total of 1,317 people from 45 countries were evacuated through the Azerbaijani border. Among them were 109 citizens of Tajikistan, three Uzbeks, three Kazakhs, and two Kyrgyz.
The Tajik ambassador to Iran, Nizamuddin Zohidi, told RFE/RL's Tajik Service that Turkmenistan had opened the Sarakhs crossing to help foreign citizens, including Tajiks, leave Iran. He added that embassy staff were working around the clock, with a hotline for citizens, and that Iranian authorities were assisting by transporting evacuees toward the border.
According to officials, the embassies of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan have been coordinating evacuations, with diplomats stationed at key border crossings in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to assist their citizens. These routes are essential because air travel has been completely halted.
Michael Knights: Gulf Region On The Precipice Of Fundamental Change
With the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran now into its sixth day, both sides continue to launch attacks amid fears the war could spill over into a broader regional conflict.
Michael Knights, head of research at Horizon Engage, a New York–based strategic advisory firm and an adjunct fellow at The Washington Institute, spoke with RFE/RL's Vazha Taberidze about the likely objectives in the conflict for both sides and what may happen if those aren't achieved.
RFE/RL: What's at stake in this confrontation? What are the strategic objectives of each side?
Michael Knights: The minimal US-Israeli objectives are that Iran's offensive military capability to affect environments outside of Iran has to be reduced to an absolutely maximal extent.
That means that the missile program is crippled for the long term. There's no aircraft available, as few helicopters as possible, no navy, no major long-range rocket systems, [and] ground force capabilities are greatly degraded. That's the minimum.
The bonus would be if the regime begins to crumble and there is ideally an inside-out change of government, meaning a change of government starting in Tehran, not a change of government starting in the provinces. This is why the president of the United States has been essentially begging Iranians to take over institutions and rise up within the cities.
But what we're starting to see is the other alternative happening, which is the crumbling of the regime from the outside, from Iranian Kurdistan, from the edges. That's not as attractive an outcome for anybody because it can start to break the country up and result in significant civil war-type conditions.
I don't think the Trump administration is going to back off without achieving its minimum objectives, which is an unprecedented destruction of the Iranian regime's military war machine and repressive institutions.
RFE/RL: Does the United States have a Plan B if the chosen strategy to achieve those objectives doesn't yield the desired results?
Knights: I think Plan B is to do the destruction and then to stop the operation and to leave the Israelis to continually go back and mow the grass as if Iran is a new Lebanon.
If you look at the Israelis after they defeated Hezbollah, they go back whenever they want and they prevent reconstitution. At this point, that would be a feasible option for the Israelis.
So one end point here is that the US only achieves its minimum objectives of taking down Iranian military capabilities. And from that point onward the Israelis just conduct an endless campaign between the wars over Iran, entering whenever they want, destroying any target that they detect. They do a sort of death of a thousand cuts against the regime over a longer period of time, and they foment uprisings at the edges of the Iranian state.
That objective doesn't sound so attractive to the US and to the Gulf states. So they're wondering: Is it just worth carrying on right now and pushing all the way through to the end and seeing if we can get a change of government right now? And it's done and dusted within weeks instead of months or years.
In Venezuela, it was very rapid. We had the Delcy government stepping up after Maduro stepped down, and they demonstrated subservience to the US. The US is recognizing that this option doesn't seem to be available in Iran. And as a result, if you can't overthrow this government, you are stuck with this situation for the long term.
RFE/RL: How big are the advantages that the US and Israel possess?
Knights: In conventional military terms, Iran is a house with no roof right now. The Israelis and the US will have full freedom of movement for the foreseeable future, maybe forever at this point.
Once it's at this point, the Israelis will never stop going back on a monthly basis until that regime is gone. It is bigger than Lebanon, but it's also very important to the Israelis. And they now have the capability to keep intervening for the foreseeable future.
What's at stake here is really the whole future of the region. We're at a dividing line right now where the post-1979 experience of the region can be fundamentally changed. And President Trump, you can tell he's obsessed with the idea that Iran can become a friend. I think the Trump people see Iran as a tragic waste of an amazing market and an amazing potential partner. So they want it over because they think that there's a lot to do there potentially.
RFE/RL: If Iran, maybe at a modest rate, is still able to continue firing, and if it adds even more drones to the mix, it could turn into a longer-term regional war. What would be the implications of that?
Knights: It's a scenario, for sure. At this point, what seems to be happening to try and head off that scenario is two things: The Gulf states themselves, instead of being noncombatants, which is what they're aiming to be, are coming to combatant status, and they themselves are now starting to police further out the counter-drone line.
What they're also likely to do is bring US manned aircraft forward from Jordan. That will provide a much thicker defense screen, particularly against drones over the Gulf itself. So there are things we haven't done yet which can still be used.
At the moment the Gulf states are using their most expensive assets to shoot down Iranian missiles. But there are a lot cheaper assets we haven't utilized yet because the Gulf states chose to tell us: No, go base over Jordan and Israel and Cyprus. Don't be in the Gulf littoral itself. Please don't bring your combat aircraft forward. So we might all see a change in that regard.
But let's just assume the worst-case scenario and that doesn't happen. The Iranians have deeper magazines than us. They manage to keep shooting, which is quite possible. The Huthis certainly did.
A couple of things then. One is that it's going to get very expensive to use Hormuz. It already is. The US is going to have to commit to something like the reflagging system from the Iran-Iraq War era and ensuring individual cargoes. So it's going to get expensive. Trump is not going to like that.
And the Gulf states are not going to like ongoing strikes that last for weeks instead of days. So it's fair to say that we're in a race right now.
RFE/RL: Finally, what's at stake for Russia and China?
Knights: Easy: same as with Venezuela. The problem with Russia and China's great power competition is they don't have power-projection capabilities. As a result, when something is happening far away, like Venezuela, or even as far away as Iran, they simply have no hard-power capability to affect the result. There's still a US hard power advantage at a continental range that the Russians and the Chinese don't have. Their soft power is extraordinary. But in this case it doesn't help a partner.
And everyone can see that Assad in Syria went down despite Russian support. Iran went down despite Russian and Chinese support. Venezuela, Maduro went down, as well. That's the reality.
Trump Says US To Play Role In Choosing Iran's Next Leader As Conflict Widens
President Donald Trump said Washington will help choose the next leader of Iran as US and Israeli forces continued air strikes amid growing concerns of a broader conflict after drones launched from Iran struck Azerbaijan and Israel pushed into southern Lebanon.
With the United States and Israel currently engaged in a sixth day of war against Iran, the number of countries in the region to suffer Tehran's retaliatory strikes, which have targeted both military and civilian infrastructure, grew again on March 5.
Trump, speaking to Reuters in a phone interview, said he wants to be involved in choosing Iran's next leader, while ruling out Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - a hardliner who has been considered a favorite to succeed his father.
"We want to be involved in the process of choosing the person who is going to lead Iran into the future," he was quoted by the agency as saying.
"We don't have to go back every five years and do this again and again...Somebody that's going to be great for the people, great for the country."
The supreme leader was killed last weekend in air strikes as US and Israeli military operations pummeled the country.
Since then, a steady barrage of strikes have decimated Iran's military, communications infrastructure, and other key facilities across the country.
Iran has retaliated with attacks on US military bases across the Middle East, dragging Arab Gulf states -- and others such as Turkey and Azerbaijan -- onto the frontlines of a war they have long tried to avoid.
Iran's neighbor Azerbaijan, which has longstanding ties with Israel, reported attacks launched from Iranian territory on March 5.
Two people were injured after drones have struck Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan autonomous region, with one damaging the region's airport and a second landing near a school, according to Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry.
President Ilham Aliyev said that "Iran committed an act of terror against the territory of Azerbaijan, against the state of Azerbaijan" with the attack, while the Foreign Ministry said Baku "reserves the right to respond."
Later in the day, Iran's Foreign Ministry denied that the country had targeted Azerbaijan.
Millions of ethnic Azerbaijanis live in Iran. Azerbaijan is also one of the main oil suppliers to Israel, while Israel has been a key defense partner for Baku for years.
Many in Azerbaijan see Israel's military supplies as critical during country's campaign to regain control of the Karabakh region from Armenia.
A day earlier, a ballistic missile launched from Iran was heading toward Turkish airspace and was intercepted by NATO air defense systems, according to Turkish officials.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte condemned Iran but said the incident does not provide immediate reason to trigger the alliance's mutual defense clause, Article 5.
"The most important thing is that our adversaries have seen yesterday that NATO is so strong and so vigilant, and even more vigilant, if possible, since Saturday," Rutte said on March 5, referring to when the US-Israeli strikes began on February 28.
Earlier, a State Department spokesman said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had spoken with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to discuss recent developments and had pledged "full support" for the NATO ally.
Ukraine To Provide Expertise Against Iran's Drones
As air travel disruptions continued across the Middle East with Iran firing missiles and drones against Israel and other regional countries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his offers to provide support in countering Tehran's Shahed drones were accepted.
"We received a request from the United States for specific support in protection against Shaheds in the Middle East region," Zelenskyy said on his social media on March 5.
Tehran has long been an ally of Russia, supplying it with military equipment and technology and fueling Moscow's war effort against Ukraine. Zelenskyy said earlier that Russia's military had used at least 57,000 Shahed drones in attacks on his country, including against its civilian and energy infrastructure.
Now, the Ukrainian president said Kyiv will help its partners with expertise: "I gave instructions to provide the necessary means and ensure the presence of Ukrainian specialists who can guarantee the required security."
Ukraine, which has just entered the fifth year of repelling Russia's full-scale invasion, has been suggesting to share its experience in defending against Iranian-made drones since the first Iranian attacks across the Gulf.
Asked on the matter, US President Donald Trump, who has previously criticized some of the European leaders for failing to provide enough support for US military actions said he'll take "any assistance from any country."
Trump: US Holds 'Strong Position'
Trump on March 4 vowed that there would be no let up with the joint air campaign that has killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other security, military, and political leaders.
He added that Tehran's arsenal of ballistic missiles was being "wiped out rapidly."
Trump has said he ordered the attack on Iran to prevent the country from developing a nuclear weapon but has also said he wanted Tehran to cease its ballistic missile program and to end violence against anti-government protesters, thousands of whom were killed in a brutal crackdown in recent weeks.
Seeking to counter concerns of American '"boots on the ground" in the war, the White House on March 4 said deployment of US ground troops in Iran is "not part of the plan for this operation at this time."
Instead, Trump backed the Kurds in launching their own offensive, saying he thinks it’s "wonderful that they want to do that." Asked by Reuters if the United States would offer air cover for such an operation, Trump refused to answer.
Earlier in the week, sources told Axios that the president spoke with Kurdish leaders, who sought consultation on whether and how to attack Tehran's security forces.
Netanyahu Claims 'Historic Gains'
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said the two allies had made "historic gains" in their war against Iran, which is in its sixth day.
"Israel and the United States have together made historic gains to protect our citizens and the civilized world," government spokeswoman Shosh Bedrosian said in a video message.
As Bedrosian also claimed the attack on Iran was necessary as Tehran was rebuilding its nuclear weapons program in "new underground bunkers" and that there were signs it planned "to attack Israel and US forces in the region," without providing details.
Separately, Israel stepped up its attacks on strongholds of Iran-allied Hezbollah forces in Lebanon after the group launched missiles into northern Israel. According to Israeli military, Tel Aviv's goal was to create "a buffer...between our residents and any threat,"
French President Emmanuel Macron on March 4 said he urged Netanyahu to refrain from launching a ground offensive in Lebanon.
"I reiterated the necessity for Hezbollah to immediately cease its attacks on Israel and beyond. This escalatory strategy is a grave mistake that puts the entire region at risk," Macron wrote on X.
"I also called on the Israeli Prime Minister to preserve the integrity of Lebanese territory and to refrain from launching a ground offensive. It is crucial for the parties to return to the ceasefire agreement," Macron added.
Reports indicate that Israeli ground forces have already crossed the border into Lebanon, although details remain unclear.
On March 5, Israeli military warned residents in Beirut's southern suburbs to evacuate immediately. "Save your lives and evacuate your residences immediately," Israel's military forces spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, RFE/RL correspondent Alex Raufoglu in Washington
- By RFE/RL,
- Ray Furlong and
- Current Time
Israeli Purim Celebrations Defy Iranian Missiles
Israelis were celebrating Purim with singing, dancing, and costume parties on March 4. When the festivities in Jerusalem were interrupted by an air-raid alert, people headed for the shelters and kept partying there -- determined to maintain normal life amid war.