Opposition leaders in Georgia are using local elections on October 4 as a focus to reinvigorate anti-government protests that have largely fizzled out in recent months, but a call to boycott the voting has underscored divisions in their ranks.
Mass demonstrations in the Caucasus republic broke out in late 2024, following alleged violations in parliamentary elections and a subsequent government decision to halt talks on joining the European Union.
These protests have continued on a daily basis, but turnout has shrunk amid the government’s use of targeted arrests, large fines, and media repression.
“Georgia is in a state of long running political crisis. But the ruling party, Georgian Dream, has the upper hand,” Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, told RFE/RL.
“Repression continues, but it's done quite skillfully. It's not the kind of mass repression that we're seeing in Russia. It's targeted repression that keeps the ruling party in power,” he added.
'Internal And External Enemies'
Two arrests this week highlight the point.
On September 29, prominent activist Gela Khasaya was arrested and charged with causing bodily harm during an altercation at an earlier protest in Tbilisi.
On October 1, Zviad Kuprava, a member of former President Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM), was detained after posting a video calling for mass protests and disruption of the elections.
Saakashvili himself is currently serving a 12.5-year prison sentence and this week was fined more than 3 million dollars. He’s been convicted of a variety of charges that he says are politically motivated.
Also this week, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire leader of Georgian Dream, issued an uncompromising statement on the current political situation.
“In the upcoming local government elections, unmasked internal and external enemies see another opportunity for unrest, coup d'état, and the realization of their goals,” he said.
Ivanishvili did not specify who the “external enemies” are. But relations with the EU and the United States have dramatically worsened in recent months, while Tbilisi has pursued closer ties with Moscow.
“Today, the situation is really bad. The country is going downhill,” Volker Weichsel, a political scientist at the German Association for East European Studies (DGO), said in an interview for RFE/RL’s Echo of the Caucasus website.
“The opposition is unable to agree on a united path – to take part in the elections or not, to put forward a single candidate or not. As a result, we see disunity which, of course, suits the Kremlin,” he said.
Opposition 'Disunity'
While many opposition parties have decided to boycott the local elections, two pro-EU parties have not: Lelo for Georgia, a centrist party, and For Georgia, led by former Georgian Dream Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, who has left the country since turning against the authorities. He is under investigation for sabotage.
De Waal, a longstanding Caucasus expert, agreed that the election boycott damaged the opposition and benefited the authorities.
“In Tbilisi last year, the ruling party actually got less than 50% of the vote. The opposition actually got more votes. And so the opposition, if it had come up with a strong unified candidate, would have had a chance of winning the mayoral election in Tbilisi,” he said.
“But because of this boycott, it's very unlikely that they will get the votes to win the mayoral election in Tbilisi. And meanwhile, Georgen Dream will be able to claim this was a competitive election. So, in that sense, I think this boycott has only been to the benefit of Georgian Dream.”
The rationale behind the calls for a boycott, meanwhile, is based on fears that they will not be truly free and fair. Boycott supporters point to the alleged violations in last year’s parliamentary elections and suggest that even in the case of an opposition victory, the results could be falsified by the authorities.
This is the backdrop to the opposition’s call to street protests on October 4. The turnout will be closely watched. While numbers have diminished over time at more than 300 daily demonstrations, protests with a particular focus have continued to result in larger gatherings.
Yet while the UNM is calling for hundreds of thousands of people to take to the streets, hoping it will lead to a government collapse, Georgian Dream has so far been able to soak up the political heat generated by protests.
“I don’t think the current regime has to fear the protests on October 4. They will take place but I don’t see it leading to a revolution. Unless, of course, there’s bloodshed,” said Weichsel.
Tensions have been rising in recent weeks as the local elections draw near, leading to scuffles in recent weeks. When protests targeted the campaign headquarters of Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze on September 8, Georgian Dream supporters pelted them with bottles and stones.
Previously, security forces have used tear gas, rubber bullets, and pepper spray against protesters, who have responded with fireworks. Police have also beat people up, targeting activists and journalists and the most severe cases of such violence have not been investigated by the Georgian authorities.
