live Trump Warns Iran To Stick To Agreement Or Face Consequences

The Iran framework agreement gave an immediate boost to markets, with shares rising and oil prices dipping. But whether this translates into durable economic gains will largely depend on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

There were signs of traffic beginning to revive on June 18 in the hours immediately after the US and Iranian presidents signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war, according to Windward, a maritime intelligence company.

Speaking in an online briefing, Windward chief analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann said 18 vessels had transited the strait between 6 p.m. on June 17 and 2 p.m. UTC on June 18, in what she described as "a sign of confidence in the agreement."

Ben Cahill, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center, indicated that this trickle needs to grow if the hope of an economic peace dividend is to be realized.

"It's all about tanker traffic. Agreements on paper don't matter much unless they really get oil moving again through the Strait of Hormuz, because that's what everyone will be monitoring -- the number of tankers exiting the strait to carry oil, gas, and other products to market," he told RFE/RL.

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There have been signs of shipping beginning to revive in the Strait of Hormuz in the hours since the US and Iranian presidents signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war, according to Windward, a maritime intelligence company.

Speaking in an online briefing, Windward chief analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann said 18 vessels had transited the strait between 6 p.m. on June 17 and 2 p.m. UTC on June 18, in what she described as "a sign of confidence in the agreement."

Specifically, she said these were a French-flagged liquid natural gas (LNG) tanker, two Hong Kong-flagged tankers, an Italian-flagged vehicles carrier, a Japanese-controlled oil tanker, and several Saudi-flagged tankers.

Ten of the vessels were outbound, having been stuck in the Persian Gulf for 109 days owing to the war that began with US and Israeli air strikes on Iran on February 28.

"What's important now is what's going out. So, it's going to start as a trickle, but certainly this is a very good sign, an early sign that there is confidence for outbound transits," Wiese Bockmann said.

"Transits averaged about seven vessels a day in the first two weeks of June until we had word of this agreement coming on Sunday. And the total volume of transit so far in June already exceeds the 156 that we saw in May that we tracked. So, certainly we see everything gathering force," she added.

Windward also tracked Iranian vessels moving through the strait, and also Iranian-controlled LNG and oil tankers heading west from southeast Asia through the Malacca Straits -- apparently confident of being able to load up in Iranian ports now that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and waters has been lifted.

Under the deal signed on June 17, Iran has agreed to toll-free transit through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, pending further talks with US negotiators.

Bockmann said the southern route through the strait is in Omani waters, and that once this was demined the question of a toll became unimportant. Tehran has spoken of imposing "maritime service fees" in cooperation with Oman, but Bockmann said, "I really don't think that's going to fly."

US President Donald Trump has defended the peace agreement with Iran ahead of talks in Switzerland on implementing the memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington, and attacked critics of the deal.

Writing on his Truth Social platform on June 18, a day after signing the agreement, Trump said: "These fools, who think I haven’t been tough enough on Iran, when the Stock Market Just Hit A RECORD HIGH, and Oil prices are “tumbling” down, are either jealous, bad people, or stupid."

Since Iran and the United States announced that they had reached an agreement to end the war on June 17, oil prices have fallen sharply on global markets while stock prices have risen in many parts of the world, while US stock indexes have hit record levels.

Continuing that trend, crude oil prices fell by more than 3 percent on June 18, with West Texas Intermediate crude dropping below $75 per barrel.

At the same time, criticism of the agreement has intensified in the United States, with some Republican politicians questioning its terms. Reactions in Israel have also been largely negative.

The US-Iranian deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz is inevitably being compared with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreed with Tehran by then US President Barrack Obama.

That deal was fiercely criticized by his successor, Donald Trump, who pulled the United States out of it in 2018 during his first term of office. Trump has repeatedly said his deal would be better, although the text he signed in Versailles is not the final one -- it leaves many issues to be negotiated over the next 60 (or more) days.

“If it were easy we would have resolved it, you know, two wars ago,” Naysan Rafati, Iran Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, told RFE/RL, referring both to the 12-Day War in June last year and to this year’s hostilities, that reignited with US and Israeli air strikes on February 28.

“The fundamentals of the Iranian nuclear program since last June have been different to what they were like under the JCPOA,” he added.

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International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol has welcomed the interim agreement ending the Iran war and called for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened "without conditions" to restore confidence in global energy markets.

Speaking at an event in Istanbul on June 18, Birol said several countries were reassessing their energy policies after Iran's closure of the strategic waterway during the conflict highlighted its vulnerability to future disruptions.

The US-Iran agreement provides for the reopening of the strait, which usually accounts for around one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies, and the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iran, potentially ending a disruption that the IEA estimates blocked more than 14 million barrels per day of Middle East oil output.

Birol said the agency would discuss new energy-security strategies with governments, warning that the crisis had fundamentally altered perceptions of global supply routes.

"The vase is broken," he said. "Now all actors know that the Strait of Hormuz was closed once and it can be shut down again."

With reporting by Reuters

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said that it is ready to begin work on implementing the US-Iran agreement signed on June 17, under which Tehran has agreed to dilute its enriched uranium stockpile in exchange for economic relief.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said on June 18 that the agency would now work with US and Iranian officials to define the "concrete steps" needed to carry out the deal.

Under the agreement, Iran's enriched uranium could be reduced through "down-blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA," placing the UN nuclear watchdog at the center of the verification process.

Grossi described the operation as highly complex and said the IAEA's role in the memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington underscored its credibility and expertise. He welcomed the agreement, saying: "I think it's good that the memorandum is there."

"Now the technical work starts," he added.

The deal is intended as a temporary arrangement while broader negotiations continue over the future of Iran's nuclear program.

Israel is holding talks with the United States as it looks to maintain its military presence in southern Lebanon despite a new US-Iran agreement that calls for respect for Lebanon's sovereignty, Reuters reported on June 18, citing two Israeli officials.

One senior official close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was "conducting stubborn negotiations" with Washington and would not retreat from its position of keeping troops deployed south of Lebanon's Litani River.

The discussions come a day after the United States and Iran signed an interim pact that commits parties to ensuring "the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon."

The negotiations are taking place as violence in Lebanon has declined sharply following the announcement of the agreement.

However, an Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon on June 18 killed one person and seriously wounded another, according to Lebanon's state-run National News Agency.

Israel's military also announced the death of a soldier during an incident in southern Lebanon the previous night that left seven other troops wounded.

Israel expanded its military operations in southern Lebanon after Hezbollah opened fire on March 2 in support of Iran. Israeli officials describe territory seized in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria as buffer zones intended to enhance security.

Since the US and Iran announced they had reached an agreement on June 16, Hezbollah has not claimed responsibility for any new attacks against Israel, although limited exchanges of fire have continued.

With reporting by Reuters

Oil prices fell on June 18 as investors weighed the interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran which could reduce risks to global energy supplies, while the dollar was little changed against major currencies.

US crude dropped 1.25 percent to $75.83 a barrel and Brent crude fell 1.4 percent to $78.41, continuing declines after US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian signed a deal aimed at ending months of conflict in the Middle East.

Recent falls in oil prices have eased concerns about a global economic slowdown, particularly in energy-importing economies.

The International Energy Agency said the oil market could move into a significant supply surplus by 2027 following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Currency markets were steadier.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of major peers, slipped 0.03 percent to 100.32. The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.1511, while the dollar edged up against the Japanese yen to 160.65, near its highest level since July 2024.

With reporting by Reuters

The US and Iranian presidents have signed a memorandum of understanding, marking an initial peace agreement intended to end the conflict in the Middle East and taking effect immediately.

US President Donald Trump signed the memorandum of understanding on June 17 during a candlelit dinner at the Palace of Versailles following a Group of Seven (G7) summit.

A video shared by the White House and French President Emmanuel Macron on X shows Trump signing the document.

"This was not easy," Trump said as he signed the agreement, while host French President Emmanuel Macron and other guests applauded.

"This agreement paves the way for lasting peace and allows the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," Macron said on X.

Iran's state news agency, IRNA, released photos showing Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian signing the agreement between Iran and the United States.

In the photos, the Iranian president holds the pages of the agreement up to the cameras, with both his signature and that of the US president visible.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose government helped mediate the agreement, announced on X that the deal would take effect immediately.

With reporting by AFP and Reuters

We are now closing the live blog for the day. We'll be back at 7:30 a.m. Central European time to cover the latest events across the Middle East.