Ukraine has entered the fifth year of Russia’s all-out invasion, the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II, with its troops holding the line from grinding attacks in frozen trenches while its civilians face nightly mass drone and missile strikes that have cut off energy supplies amid bitter winter weather.
Estimates of casualty figures vary, but one recent report put the number of killed, wounded, and missing at 1.2 million Russians and 500,000-600,000 Ukrainians.
The conflict has displaced millions of Ukrainians from their homes. The World Bank said on the eve of the anniversary that reconstructing the economy would cost $588 billion over a decade.
But for this to begin, the war must end.
Peace Talks
US-led peace negotiations, launched by US President Donald Trump after he took office in January 2025, have not made a clear breakthrough -- although further talks may take place later this week, according to the Ukrainian authorities.
During talks last week, US chief envoy Steve Witkoff said that “meaningful progress” was made, without giving details, and added that “both parties agreed to…continue working towards a deal.”
"I think that over time both sides are feeling quite strong pressure -- both economic and foreign policy pressure -- from the United States,” political analyst Anton Penkovsky told Current Time.
"Now, in fact, we are hearing more and more specific questions about territories, the Donbas issue, from both sides,” he said.
After months of talks, territory remains one of the main sticking points. Russia is demanding Ukraine hand over what it still holds in the eastern Donbas region, despite proving unable to conquer it militarily.
It is an issue Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has refused to budge on, saying he’d need to hold a referendum and that Ukrainians would never agree to it.
Speaking to soldiers on February 23, Zelenskyy said "Ukraine cannot surrender" and that Russia could be forced to give up the war.
“Ukraine is now in its positions, in strong positions. We have withstood many blows. Ukraine is restoring and protecting life, withstanding all assaults," he added.
Ceremonies In Kyiv
On February 24, which is the day of the anniversary, Zelenskyy will address the European Parliament by video link and welcome senior European Union leaders to Kyiv. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa will attend an official memorial ceremony and also visit energy infrastructure damaged by Russian missile strikes, according to an EU press release.
“The European Union has stood staunch and steadfast in solidarity with the Ukrainian people — with those who have lost loved ones, those who have been wounded, and all who continue to endure this unjust suffering,” Costa said ahead of the trip.
“Four years later, we reaffirm that our support remains strong, united, and unwavering,” he added.
European nations have sought to pick up the slack since US President Donald Trump decided to substantially reduce military support for Ukraine. Under a NATO scheme, European countries now purchase US weapons and other military equipment for Ukraine, while also maintaining their own supplies to Kyiv.
The last year also saw European nations plus Canada and other allies forming the “Coalition of the Willing” to coordinate Ukraine support and also plan for a potential post-war peace-keeping mission or “reassurance force.”
The Coalition is holding a video conference on February 24, hosted by its twin leaders, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron. Ahead of the anniversary, UK Defense Secretary John Healey wrote "I want to be the Defense Secretary who deploys British troops to Ukraine – because this will mean that this war is finally over."
Security Guarantees
The prospect of Western troops in Ukraine is part of Kyiv’s key demands for peace: viable security guarantees so that Moscow doesn’t use any pause in fighting to simply rearm and attack again sometime down the line.
This too is a sticking point, with Kremlin officials repeatedly stating that Western forces deploying to Ukraine would be unacceptable. Many analysts have said Russia does not really want peace.
“The plan remains to exhaust Ukraine’s capacity to resist,” wrote Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute think-tank on February 23. “The Russians believe they can sustain the war into 2027 and perceive the ongoing process of negotiations as a vehicle for driving a wedge into the transatlantic alliance.”
On February 23, handing out medals to soldiers who have fought in Ukraine, Putin did not appear to be looking to stop his war on Ukraine. “You stand firmly for Russia,” he told them.
"We honor all those who, at the risk of their lives, with courage and bravery, with love for Russia, stand on our borders," he added, following the Kremlin line that Russia is defending itself when in fact it is occupying large swathes of Ukraine and seeking to grab more.
Speaking to an RFE/RL camera team in Kramatorsk, a town in eastern Ukraine that has come under repeated Russian bombardment, one local resident articulated the widely-held desire for peace as the war enters its fifth year.
“I wish they’d agree on something good. We’ve been praying about that. People have suffered so much,” she said. As she finished speaking, a loud explosion rang out.
