Ukraine Inches Toward Crucial Debt Restructuring Deal
Kiev, May 29, 2015 (AFP) -- Ukraine's finance minister said on Friday that Kiev and its private creditors were about to launch direct debt restructuring negotiations that could save the war-torn country from a devastating default.
Natalie Jaresko's comments came as the ex-Soviet state's pro-Western leadership races to meet a late June deadline by which it must find a way to save $15 billion (13.7 billion euros) over four years.
A watertight debt restructuring plan would allow the International Monetary Fund to hand over the next slice of a $17.5-billion loan at the core of a $40-billion global aid package.
IMF executives are yet to name a specific date on which they will discuss Ukraine during their late June meeting.
"We should reach the stage of direct negotiations very soon," Ukrainian news agencies quoted Jaresko as saying.
"That way, we will be able to reach an agreement in an absolutely constructive and conscientious manner."
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Thursday signed a bill passed by parliament last week giving Kiev "the right, if necessary, to stop payments to foreign debt holders."
The measure is largely symbolic and meant to underscore lawmakers' support for a payment moratorium that could theoretically turn Kiev into a financial outcast that looses access to the international lending market.
Such a freeze would almost certainly prompt Russia -- due a $3-billion loan repayment at the end of the year -- to ask the International Court of Justice in The Hague to declare Ukraine in default.
Moscow has refused to discuss any loan restructuring offer and argued that it technically already has the right to ask for the money back.
Five large US private creditors who hold $8.9 billion of the debt have thus far also stuck to their guns.
They have particularly rejected the US Treasury Department and Jaresko's debt "haircut" proposal that slashes the bonds' original value and forces them to assume a loss.
Bloomberg reported on Friday that the creditors -- led by Franklin Templeton and including such bond market giants as PIMCO and Blackrock -- on May 9 submitted a counter-proposal they said would save Ukraine $15.8-billion over four years.
It reportedly preserves the bonds' original value but extends their maturities by 10 years. Bloomberg said the proposal would also lower the interest payment and allow the original loan amount to be payed back in small instalments instead of a lump sum.
- 'Protracted dispute' -
The Ukrainian government has not publicly responded to the reported offer and Jaresko on Friday called the negotiations "very difficult".
But the deal and the IMF funds that come with it are essential for the Ukrainian government's survival in the short term.
Ukraine's year-on-year inflation rate reached a staggering 60.9 percent in April and industrial output -- already weakened last year by the raging war with pro-Russian militants -- declined by another 23.4 percent.
The threat of inflation climbing even further because of Ukraine's dire currency shortage forced the central bank on Thursday to hold its key lending rate at 30 percent -- a rate that effectively chokes off economic growth.
Analysts say that Kiev is far from guaranteed meeting the requirements necessary to unlock the next IMF loan payment.
Capital Economics emerging market economist William Jackson said the five US investors' approach inched the sides forward but did not guarantee a final deal.
The US group is "reportedly in close contact with other private creditors holding $10 billion of debt, but it's not clear that these creditors have agreed to the proposal," Jackson said in a research note.
"And finally, this proposal doesn't tackle the thorny issue of the $3-billion Russian eurobond," he stressed.
"As yet, it's not clear what will happen with this, but it seems set to cause a protracted dispute."
Reuters interviews the Russian soldiers captured in Ukraine:
From his hospital bed in the Ukrainian capital, Russian fighter Alexander Alexandrov feels abandoned by his country, its leaders and even the local Russian consul.
Alexandrov, 28, says he's a Russian soldier who was captured in east Ukraine after being sent there on active duty with Russian special forces to help separatists fighting Kiev. He said he was serving on a three-year contract. "I never tore it up, I wrote no resignation request," he said. "I was carrying out my orders."
Yet Russian President Vladimir Putin, in the face of widespread evidence to the contrary, has repeatedly said there are no Russian soldiers in Ukraine – only volunteers who have gone to help the separatists of their own accord.
So Alexandrov and Yevgeny Yerofeyev, another Russian who was captured with him, find themselves pawns in the deepest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the Cold War.
They believe they should be treated as captured servicemen. But Moscow will not admit they are any such thing, or that it has sent any soldiers into Ukraine to help wrest swathes of east away from Kiev's control. To do so would undermine Moscow's claims that the separatist uprising there is a spontaneous reaction by Russian-speaking communities against Kiev.
The Kremlin has described the two men as Russian citizens, and Russia's defense ministry has said they are former soldiers who left the military before they were captured.
Disowned at home, the two men stand accused by Ukrainian authorities of being terrorists.
In an interview from his bed, Alexandrov, wearing a hospital-issue green T-shirt and with several days stubble on his face, told Reuters he felt alone and trapped between these vast forces. He said the Russian consul in Kiev had visited him and Yerofeyev, but had been a let-down. The two captives had hoped Moscow would get them home in a prisoner exchange, but they said the consul had been non-committal.
"I asked him a few questions. There was no answer to them. He said that when he has the answers, he will come again and let us know what they are,” said Alexandrov, whose leg was shattered in a gun battle.
The Russian embassy in Kiev had no comment on Friday. In an earlier statement it had described Alexandrov and Yerofeyev as “Russian citizens detained in the Luhansk region” and said they were receiving proper medical treatment. “Embassy officials plan to visit the compatriots regularly,” the statement said.
Ukrainian armed servicemen and officials in civilian clothes were present during the interviews Alexandrov and Yerofeyev gave to Reuters. Both Russian men made it clear they were active service members of the Russian military on the day they were captured. Alexandrov said he knew his military identification number off by heart: E131660.
He also said he fears for his relatives back in Russia. A few days ago, his wife, Yekaterina, appeared on Russian state television. Looking nervous, and talking in stilted phrases, she said her husband had quit the Russian military in December last year. That account was helpful to Putin's claims that only volunteer Russians have gone to Ukraine.
"They said I was no longer a serviceman," Alexandrov said. "It's a bit hurtful, especially when they do it through your family, through your wife. That crosses a line."
Alexandrov, who was captured on May 16, said he had been unable to get hold of his wife by telephone for nearly two weeks. She has not replied to his messages posted on social media accounts. A photograph of him with his wife stood on the table next to his bedside.
He said Yekaterina always used to pick up his calls, even before they were married, when sometimes he would call in the middle of the night. He asked to borrow a Reuters correspondent's mobile telephone so he could try calling her. Yerofeyev, also in a green T-shirt, his right arm in a bandage binding it to his torso, came into the room and watched.
Alexandrov dictated the number to the correspondent, and checked it was correct. With the phone in speaker mode, the call connected, and the ringing tone could be heard. But no one picked up.
"I'm really worried about my wife," he said. "Right now all this has fallen on her small, fragile shoulders."
Reuters was unable to contact his wife independently for comment.
Here is today's map of the security situation in eastern Ukraine, according to the National Security and Defense Council:
The Denisenkos and their four children fled the conflict in eastern Ukraine last fall. But the warm welcome they had been promised in Russia never materialized. Instead, the family is facing hostility, unemployment, and crushing poverty. They now desperately want to return home. (Melani Bachina, RFE/RL's Russian Service)
